Early voting is underway and already more than 12 million votes have been cast. At this point in 2016, only 1 million votes were cast. We have turnout that is already 10 times the one in 2016. In 6 states – the more notable of which are Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida – more that 20% of the votes cast in 2016 have already been cast. There are lines around the country with people waiting all day to cast their ballots early and make sure they are counted by Election Day.
The ballots requested and already cast had the following party registrations: 52% of Democrats, 16% Republicans and 32% are not affiliated. You can assume that the independents by and large are voting for Democrats – let’s say 75%. If a person is voting early, it is because they are afraid of COVID. This means that 75% of the ballots already cast are for Biden and only 25% for Trump. Trump is already trailing massively.
Trump with his constant taunting, super-spreader COVID campaign rallies, overt voter suppression efforts and pledges not to give up power peacefully has absolutely panicked the American population. We have a total nutcase in charge of the nuclear codes and American law enforcement. In 2016, this was a hypothetical scenario. Now we have it in front of our eyes and we see how quickly Trump is destroying American democracy. Americans also now realize that American presidents are kings for 4 years. The US Constitution doesn’t really check Presidential power all that much. Presidents can’t be sued, can’t be curtailed and can’t be forced to behave in the public interest. We happened to have elected Presidents in the past who had morals and character and behaved in the public interest. We see what a disaster the US constitution is if we elect an immoral demagogue with no interest in governing in the public interest. American voters now understand that their vote matters and only their vote can save their lives from collapsing into an authoritarian nightmare with a lunatic at the top or into a Civil War with a high casualty death count.
As a result, we will see the biggest turnout in American election history. 150 million people are expected to vote in 2020, which is 45% of the American population. By comparison, the biggest turnout in the past was in 2008 with 129.4 million votes when Obama beat McCain by 9.5 million votes. The next best turnout was in 2016 with 128.8 million when Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary by 2.8 million votes but won the Electoral College.
This 150 million expected turnout means that this election will bring out 22 million new voters compared to 2016.Those are voters that have never cast votes in the past. People like Shaquille O’Neal are casting votes for the first times in their lives. Overwhelmingly these new voters will be voting against Trump. Voting against Trump is the greatest motivation for new voters right now. I will assume that 90% of new voters will vote for Trump. That means that Biden will have 20 million extra votes that Hillary didn’t have in 2016. Those votes will come from the suburbs because rural votes were already maxed out in 2016. Suburban voters are voting 70-80% for Biden. I have already presented analysis in the past in which I show that disillusioned 2016 Trump voters will power the Democratic candidate to a 7 million popular vote win in 2020. To that 7 million, we have to add the 20 million of additional new suburban voters that are suddenly showing up in 2020 because of Trump’s failed COVID response and Trump’s threats to end American democratic governance.
My original projection was that in 2020, the Democratic candidate will win 67.5 million votes and that Trump will get 60 million votes in 2020. I am revising those to 87.5 million for Biden and 62.5 million for Trump (which totals up to 150 million). We are looking at the biggest popular vote win in American electoral history for Biden. Prior to 2020, the biggest popular vote landslide win was in 1972 when Nixon beat McGovern by nearly 18 million votes. Next is 1984 when Reagan beat Mondale by nearly 17 million votes. After that is 1964 when LBJ beat Goldwater by nearly 16 million votes. Biden will beat Trump by at least 25 million votes which will be the largest popular vote beatdown ever. I am also going to issue 3 new Electoral maps for a worst-case scenario for Biden, most-likely Biden win and for a best-case Biden win. There is no scenario in which Trump can win.
2020 Election Prediction
Biden: 87.5 million votes
Trump: 62.5 million votes
Difference: 25 million
Total: 150 million
Worst Case Scenario Biden Win
This is the map I issued in my 2020 Market Outlook. In that map, Trump loses the Rust Belt (because he didn’t do anything to end outsourcing) and loses Arizona (because of McCain and Flake Republican opposition in that state). Biden is currently ahead double digits in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump keeps Florida and North Carolina. Trump flips Nevada to him. In that case Biden wins a by 284 electoral votes to Trump’s 254 in a fairly thin 30 electoral vote margin.
Most Likely Biden Win
In this scenario we take all the states in which Biden is currently above 50% in the PredictIt map. This puts Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida in the Biden column. Biden is leading by 5% in the latest polls in North Carolina and Florida. Bloomberg’s $100 million spend in Florida seems to be a making a big difference. Seniors have abandoned Trump due to his pandemic response in Arizona and Florida. At this point, I expect (and PredictIt as well), that Trump will lose Florida and North Carolina. This gives Biden 334 electoral votes and Trump only 204. This is a 120 vote beat down.
Best Case Biden Win
Latest polls show Trump losing ground in Texas, Georgia and Iowa. All recent polls are even with Biden ahead by a point or two, within the margin of error. In fact, Trump is holding campaign rallies in Georgia. When did a Republican president hold rallies in Georgia two weeks ahead of an election? Try never. The Biden campaign is making big ad buys in Texas and trying to flip the state. In Harris county (which holds the city of Houston), 98% of voters have registered. An astounding number. In Iowa, Republican Senator Joni Ernst has collapsed which means that Trump chances in that state are also collapsing. If we add Iowa, Georgia and Texas to the most-likely scenario, we get Biden with 412 electoral votes and Trump with 126. This is a very comprehensive loss for Trump of 286 electoral votes. A massive humiliation and actually not that crazy of a scenario. It is quite likely to happen.