Originally sent to VIXCONTANGO subscribers on November 5th, 2016 before the 2016 Election
2016 Election Prediction
And finally, my election prediction. I don’t have to do that, but why not have some fun. Based on 37 million early votes already cast, we know that black vote is down 7% compared to 2012. Based on correcting the polls for Democratic oversampling, I have come up with a couple of scenarios. One is a very conservative (for Trump) projection and unfortunately Hillary Clinton’s worst nightmare and her best case scenario – losing in a squaker with the House of Republicans casting the deciding vote. Based on latest oversampled polling and early voting in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada are already in the bag for Trump. For example in 2012, Republicans went into election day in North Carolina down 450,000 votes – the lead was 48% to 32% into election day. This year? 42% to 31%. Florida – in 2012 they led 43% to 40% in early voting. This year 33% to 33%. In almost every state, democratic turnout is substantially down compared to 2012 while the Republicans is at minimum the same. So removing the oversampling margin from polls makes sense. When you do that, Trump leads both nationally and in most states that are considered “toss up”. And he actually turns Democratic leaning states into “toss up”. So the other scenario I have is a best case scenario where Trump is able to flip Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado.
The real question in this election is how is Clinton going to overcome Trump’s Rust Belt state firewall? It looks increasingly likely that she will not be able to pull that off.
Best Case for Democrats
Best Case for Republicans